The race for the Golden Ball is already up and running – so which of the game’s biggest stars are true contenders, and who are merely pretenders?
And there we have it – after a season headlined by him finally getting his hands on the World Cup, Lionel Messi has taken home his eighth Ballon d’Or after picking up the 2023 prize in Paris on Monday. The footballing world moves on quickly though, and already predictions are being made as to the identity of the 2024 winner.
It promises to be an intense race. Along with the usual ups and downs of the European domestic season, this is a campaign that will see the majority of the globe’s best players take part in international tournaments, including the European Championship, Copa America and Africa Cup of Nations.
So after a year that was defined by the battle between tournament success and season-long superiority, how much of a bearing on the 2024 Ballon d’Or race will those competitions have? Meanwhile, could we see the first win from someone who plays their club football outside of Europe, as more and more of the game’s biggest names head to up-and-coming leagues in other parts of the world?
One thing is for certain is that GOAL will be here every step of the way to track the contenders for the biggest individual prize the game has to offer. Ready to join us for the ride? Then step right in for the first Ballon d’Or 2024 Power Rankings…
20Son Heung-min (Tottenham)
In 2023-24: Nine goals, two assists.
It remains to be seen whether Tottenham can maintain their current pace after Ange Postecoglu’s hot start to life in north London, but the longer they remain in the Premier League title race, the more attention is going to focus on their players.
The most high-profile is Son, who has stepped up following the sale of Harry Kane and rediscovered his shooting boots after a disappointing season in 2022-23.
Though he has no Champions League to impress the Ballon d’Or judges in, there is the Asian Cup coming up in January, so the South Korean could also add an international trophy to his collection over the course of the campaign.
19Lionel Messi (Inter Miami)
In 2023-24: 11 goals, four assists. Won Leagues Cup.
Surely not number nine?! Messi became the first man playing outside Europe to win the Ballon d’Or in 2023, but he earned the prize for his performances while employed by Paris Saint-Germain. Could he now win a Golden Ball while playing exclusively on the other side of the Atlantic?
The odds are admittedly stacked against him. With MLS’ season running from February-December and with Inter Miami having missed out on the playoffs this time around, Messi will not be able to win any meaningful domestic trophies during the voting period for the 2024 award.
However, if he can have Miami near the top of the Eastern Conference midway through next season and lead them into the latter stages of the CONCACAF Champions Cup (North America’s Champions League), before then guiding Argentina to another trophy at the 2024 Copa America, then all bets might be off.
18Victor Osimhen (Napoli)
In 2023-24: Nine goals, one assist.
While a repeat of last season’s Scudetto success already feels unlikely for Napoli, Osimhen remains one of the hottest strikers in Europe and is well on the way to another superb campaign of goalscoring.
Helping to take the Partenopei deep in the Champions League case would help his case for another top-10 finish in the Ballon d’Or rankings, as would spearheading a successful Africa Cup of Nations for a Nigeria side that perhaps has the continent’s most fearsome attack.
17Declan Rice (Arsenal)
In 2023-24: Two goals, two assists.
Some eyebrows were raised when Arsenal forked out £105 million ($137m) to sign Rice from West Ham over the summer, but any doubts over the deal have quickly been erased thanks to the midfielder’s superb start to the campaign.
If Rice can help lead the Gunners to silverware this season before playing a key role for a successful England side at the Euros, then Ballon d’Or candidacy is a realistic proposition.
16Leroy Sane (Bayern Munich)
In 2023-24: 11 goals, three assists.
Sane’s time at Bayern Munich has, despite all the trophies, been up and down, but he has started the current campaign on fire, leading to him even being linked with a move to Liverpool to replace Mohamed Salah.
While he remains at the Allianz Arena, though, he is part of a team who have realistic hopes of winning both at home and in Europe, while Germany look revitalised following the appointment of Julian Nagelsmann as manager ahead of a Euros on home soil. Is this the year Sane finally reaches his potential?
15Cristiano Ronaldo (Al-Nassr)
In 2023-24: 18 goals, nine assists.
Many presumed Ronaldo was done with the Ballon d’Or after he missed out on the 30-man shortlist for the first time since 2003 this past year, but there is definitely a route for the five-time winner to force himself back into contention for 2024.
After a slow start, Al-Nassr are now the form team in Saudi Arabia, with Ronaldo proving to be almost unstoppable when it comes to providing goals and assists. Winning the treble is certainly not out of the question right now, and with Portugal also looking likely to be one of the favourites for Euro 2024, this season could yet prove to be a thrilling swansong for one of the game’s true superstars.
14Robert Lewandowski (Barcelona)
In 2023-24: Eight goals, four assists.
Though likely to go down as one of the best players to never win the Ballon d’Or, Lewandowski still has the potential to challenge despite having turned 35. Despite a recent injury, he has enjoyed a decent start to the season at Barcelona, and this time around they look likely to pose a threat for silverware in Europe as well in Spain.
Perhaps the biggest obstacle facing the ex-Bayern Munich man is that Poland’s qualification for Euro 2024 is by no means a sure thing. Right now it looks as if they will require a play-off to try and secure their place in Germany, and missing one of the summer’s big tournaments could well scupper Lewandowski’s chances of finally earning a Golden Ball.
13Jamal Musiala (Bayern Munich)
In 2023-24: Five goals, three assists.
While his start to the season hasn’t hit the same heights as the early weeks of 2022-23, Musiala continues to show up in the biggest moments for Bayern, and his all-round game continues to improve.
He has the potential to be one of the stars of the summer when Germany host Euro 2024, and if he can head into that tournament off the back of another trophy-laden campaign in Munich, then he has every chance of forcing himself into the Ballon d’Or conversation.
12Lautaro Martinez (Inter)
In 2023-24: 12 goals, two assists.
Few strikers have made as good a start to the season as Martinez, who is averaging more than a goal a game in Serie A so far for an Inter side whose performances suggest they should be considered strong favourites for the Scudetto.
The Nerazzurri are also well placed to reach the Champions League knockout rounds after reaching last season’s final, while Martinez will again be involved for Argentina as they aim to win a third-successive major tournament at the Copa America.
11Antoine Griezmann (Atletico Madrid)
In 2023-24: 10 goals, one assist.
It’s gone under the radar somewhat, but there is an argument to say that since the start of the 2022 World Cup, there has not been a more consistent high-level performer anywhere in Europe than Griezmann.
Atletico’s failure to reach the Champions League knockouts meant only those in Spain got to truly enjoy Griezman’s form in the first half of 2023, but if he can maintain this current hot streak through the current campaign and into the Euros, then a push for Ballon d’Or consideration is not out of the question.
10Bernardo Silva (Manchester City)
In 2023-24: One goal, four assists.
Bernardo tends to save his best performances for the biggest matches, and he should have plenty of those to showcase himself to the world in over the course of the campaign.
City look likely to be involved in a hotly-contested Premier League title race as well as pushing for back-to-back Champions League titles. Portugal, meanwhile, have been superb in qualifying for Euro 2024, with Bernardo pulling the strings from midfield. If he can produce more of the same in Germany, he could find himself well in the Golden Ball race.
9Bukayo Saka (Arsenal)
In 2023-24: Five goals, five assists.
Anyone who believed Arsenal might fall away after last season’s title-race disappointment has been proven wrong so far this season, with Saka leading the way for Mikel Arteta’s side as they look to break their long Premier League trophy drought.
The England winger has also enjoyed a strong start to his Champions League career and is a tournament veteran for the Three Lions by now despite being just 22 years old. The only thing potentially keeping him from the Ballon d’Or race is fitness, with his heavy workload having started to catch up with him.
8Vinicius Jr (Real Madrid)
In 2023-24: Three goals, three assists.
Injury has meant that Vinicius has not got off to the fast start many might have expected when Karim Benzema left Real Madrid, but there have been signs in recent weeks of the winger getting back to his best level.
If he can do so, then Los Blancos have a great chance of picking up trophies both at home and in Europe. Factor in that Vinicius wil also likely be Brazil’s main man at the Copa America following Neymar’s recent knee injury, and he could be set up for a superb 2024 on a personal level.
7Julian Alvarez (Manchester City)
In 2023-24: Seven goals, five assists. Won UEFA Super Cup.
The most-decorated player of the 2022-23 season after adding the World Cup to the treble he won with Man City, Alvarez has taken his game to a new level already this campaign after nailing down a starting role for Pep Guardiola’s side.
The Argentina striker figures to improve his goal and assist numbers from the last campaign, and another successful season for City and a Copa America run for Argentina could see him finish higher than the seventh-place he came in the 2023 Ballon d’Or voting.
6Rodri (Manchester City)
In 2023-24: Three goals, five assists. Won UEFA Super Cup.
Nothing illustrated Rodri’s importance to Man City more than the fact that while he was suspended for three matches earlier in the campaign, the Premier League champions lost all three
Almost unquestionably the best defensive midfielder in the world right now, the fact that the Spain international has alspo developed a habit of popping up with crucial goals means he is catching the eyes of even more fans and Ballon d’Or voters.
5Mohamed Salah (Liverpool)
In 2023-24: 10 goals, four assists.
Salah finished just outside the top 10 in the 2023 Ballon d’Or voting despite Liverpool’s struggles last season, and so with the ‘Egyptian King’ showing few signs of slowing down and the Reds getting back to their best, who’s to say he won’t finish even higher in 2024?
A lack of Champions League football may affect his final candidacy, but he could offset that by leading Egypt to the title at the Africa Cup of Nations early next year.
4Harry Kane (Bayern Munich)
In 2023-24: 17 goals, eight assists.
Kane’s move to Bayern hasn’t only put him in a spot where he can finally end his wait for a first trophy of his career, but is also likely to catapult him into proper contention for the world’s biggest individual prizes.
The former Tottenham star has made a superb start to life in the Bundesliga, averaging more than a goal a game for the defending champions, and if he can maintain that through the season before leading a hugely-talented England team to glory at Euro 2024, then who’s to say he won’t be on the stage in Paris this time next year?
3Erling Haaland (Manchester City)
In 2023-24: 16 goals, three assists. Won UEFA Super Cup.
Haaland could barely have done more to win the 2023 Ballon d’Or and yet still came up just short, so expect him to remain a relentless presence in front of goal this season as he pushes towards a first Golden Ball.
His form for City is unlikely to waver, and if they again pick up multiple trophies, that could be enough to get Haaland over the line. There is a fear, however, that he will again miss the year’s biggest international tournament, with Norway not even assured of a play-off after missing out on automatic qualification for Euro 2024.
2Kylian Mbappe (Paris Saint-Germain)
In 2023-24: 15 goals, three assists.
He’s got to win one some day, right? Mbappe could barely have looked more miserable during the 2023 Ballon d’Or ceremony as he again missed out on lifting the game’s ultimate individual honour in his home city.
On the pitch, he again looks a class above for PSG, but they have thus far not convinced in the Champions League, meaning an early exit could yet again be on the cards. Should that happen, Mbappe will likely have to captain France to Euros glory to finally get his hands on the Golden Ball.
1Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid)
In 2023-24: 14 goals, six assists.
Without a doubt the best footballer in the world right now, Bellingham has taken to his new surroundings at Real Madrid like no new signing since Cristiano Ronaldo. Not only is he scoring frequently, but he’s also netting hugely important goals, such as his double to win El Clasico.
With Bellingham in this form, England will also be confident of finally getting over their major tournament hump at the European Championship. There’s a long way to go, but Bellingham is the man to catch right now.
